The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for Brazil, together with Fundacao Getulio Vargas (TCB/FGV Brazil LEI), was unchanged in December. The index now stands at 95.4 (2010 = 100), following a 1.4 percent decline in November and a 0.2 percent increase in October. Three of the eight components contributed positively to the index in December.
"After months of decline, December's zero growth in the LEI and CEI may be a sign that the economy is stabilizing," said Paulo Picchetti, Economist at FGV/IBRE. "However, newly announced austerity policies, along with slow growth of the global economy, suggest that near-stagnant economic conditions in Brazil will persist in the near term."
"The LEI for Brazil registered no change in December and its six-month average growth rate strengthened, reflecting modest improvement in the second half of the year as compared to the sharp deterioration in the first half of 2014," said Ataman Ozyildirim, Economist at The Conference Board. "The recent stabilization of the LEI and CEI suggests that economic activity may be bottoming out, although weaknesses are still widespread in Brazil's economy."
The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® for Brazil, together with Fundacao Getulio Vargas (TCB/FGV Brazil CEI), which measures current economic activity, was unchanged in December at 105.7 (2010 = 100), following a 0.2 percent increase in November and a 0.4 percent increase in October. Two of the six components contributed positively to the index in December.
TCB/FGV Brazil LEI aggregates eight economic indicators that measure economic activity in Brazil. Each of the LEI components has proven accurate on its own. Aggregating individual indicators into a composite index filters out so-called "noise" to show underlying trends more clearly.
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