The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for Brazil, together with Fundacao Getulio Vargas (TCB/FGV Brazil LEI), declined 1.3 percent in February. The index now stands at 92.3 (2010 = 100), following a 1.7 percent decline in January and a 0.2 percent decline in December. Stock prices, the terms of trade index, and the consumer durable goods production index components contributed positively to the index in February.
"Recent fiscal and monetary policies, both implemented and yet to be implemented, are intended to improve Brazil's medium to longer-term economic growth," said Paulo Picchetti, Economist at FGV/IBRE. "However, in the short term, the persistent weaknesses in the expectations indicators, coupled with political difficulties and unfavorable trade conditions, suggest these policies will slow growth even further."
"The six-month growth rate of TCB/FGV Brazil LEI fell deeper into negative territory, suggesting that economic growth is likely to deteriorate in the short term," said Ataman Ozyildirim, Economist at The Conference Board. "Meanwhile, the Coincident Economic Index for Brazil has shown little improvement in recent months, suggesting that current economic conditions remain tenuous."
The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® for Brazil, together with Fundacao Getulio Vargas (TCB/FGV Brazil CEI), which measures current economic activity, increased 0.1 percent to 105.3 (2010 = 100) in February, following a 0.6 percent increase in January and a 1.5 percent decline in December. Four of the six components contributed positively to the index in February.
TCB/FGV Brazil LEI aggregates eight economic indicators that measure economic activity in Brazil. Each of the LEI components has proven accurate on its own. Aggregating individual indicators into a composite index filters out so-called "noise" to show underlying trends more clearly.
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