The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for India decreased 0.9 percent in December to 103.1 (2010 = 100), following a 1.7 percent increase in November and a 1.3 percent decline in October. Two of the eight components contributed positively to the index in December.
"Both the Leading and Coincident Economic Indexes for India fell in December, suggesting that the rate of India's economic expansion is unlikely to accelerate in early 2015," said Jing Sima, Senior Economist at The Conference Board. "Moreover, the recent oil price decline and large swings in India's trade and industrial sector data caused unusual volatility in both the LEI and CEI. Renewed weakness in India's financial and service data will continue to pose downside risks to India's economic growth this year."
Bart van Ark, Chief Economist at The Conference Board, added: "Because of strong business sentiment, a tailwind from lower energy prices, and some breathing room from the fiscal budget, we have raised our growth projection for India's economy from 5.5 to 5.9 percent in 2015. On the other hand, we are cautious in predicting strong and immediate results from the reform agenda as it requires going beyond picking the low-hanging fruit, as reflected in some softening in the growth rate of the industrial sector."
The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for India, which measures current economic activity, decreased 2.1 percent in December to 107.3 (2010 = 100), following a 7.0 percent increase in November and a 6.2 percent decline in October. One of the three components contributed positively to the index in December.
The Conference Board LEI for India aggregates eight economic indicators that measure economic activity in India. Each of the LEI components has proven accurate on its own. Aggregating individual indicators into a composite index filters out so-called "noise" to show underlying trends more clearly.
www.conference-bord.org
